WithAngel Guzman possibly headed to the DL with tightness in his right forearm, MLB.com is reporting Sean Gallagher
is a possible replacement to fill a middle relief role. The 21-year-old is 7-2
with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts for Double-A Tennessee, outstanding in his last outing.

 
Gallagher
is a solid prospect, one of the Cubs better ones at present, featuring a three-pitch
repertoire; a plus curveball, a fastball that has gained in velocity –- up to
94 mph — since his 12^th round selection in 2004 , with a change up
still in development but showing signs of improvement this year. I like him as
a potential No. 4 down the road; an issue in mechanics and motion still
unresolved at this point, his 54/24 K:BB ratio in 61 Double-A innings the first
of many items suggesting he’s not ready for the majors.

 

The Cubs
have made the mistake of calling up prospects too early in the past, usually to
fill a bullpen need; Carlos Marmol the most recent in 2006. To be fair there’s
no quote from the organization in the report, and I can’t believe they’re
considering Gallagher who is currently a starter, a legitimate prospect, and
not on the 40-man roster. If they were to look to the minors for a middle reliever
to add to the 40-man, why not Triple-A Iowa’s Carmen Pignatiello? The
24-year-old has needed an adjustment period at each level but excelled and is
now the statistically the best pitcher on the squad. After five scoreless
outings at Double-A he’s had 17 appearances in the Pacific Coast League posting
a 0.92 ERA in 19 and two0-third innings with a 17/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio,
opponents hitting him at a .200 clip. The nicest thing that’s ever been said
about him is a comparison to Kirk Rueter for his pugnacious-ness; the ability
to battle without legitimate stuff. But isn’t that the ideal middle relief
candidate? Even southpaw Clay Rapada would be a more viable option than
Gallagher, who’ll be major-league fodder in his present state of development.

 
I
didn’t believe the Cubs were entertaining the notion, but then it happened Wednesday morning. It seems like a reach trying to replicate someone with Guzman’s stuff (Gallagher is slightly less in that department).   

Thescuttlebutt is that Escobar will get the bulk of time in Jones’ absence, the
veteran will be placed on the 15-Day DL Saturday with a hand injury; concerns
are there may be ligament damage. The Double-A Mississippi Braves have
announced shortstop Brent Lillibridge has been promoted to
Triple-A Richmond to take Escobar’s place.

 

Escobar has been hot in the Triple-A International League
hitting .351 in the month of May, a .333/.379/.456 performance on the season;
fifth in the IL batting title race. The 24-year-old has decent defensive skills,
and the ability to make contact evidenced by a 27/14 K:BB ratio in 46 games
this year, has hit the same in every situation throughout his career. He has
gap-to-gap power capable of using the whole field with good speed on the base
paths, but not a burner with upper theft abilities; a fine shortstop prospect
in the Orlando Cabrera mold – slightly below defensively — but has
disappointed many for never driving the ball for home run potential, possibly a
byproduct of his swing-first approach at the plate. While he’s the best option
for the Braves at present he’s not a good long-term fit as a third baseman. His
skills lend themselves to the middle position, possibly a utility player at
worst.

 

I wouldn’t expect too much this go-round, his approach at
the plate should find him behind and in trouble often against the better class
of pitcher; the learning curve issue for the aggressive types. Long term I
suspect he won’t be with the Braves with Edgar Renteria signed through 2008 and
Elvis Andrus — the younger and more highly-touted prospect — possibly ready to
challenge for the role then, but, opportunity has a way of changing these views. And I’d be remiss if I failed to note the aforementioned Lillibridge as a potential major league middle infielder in any long-term Braves discussion.

Friday shouldfind the White Sox making a move to replace Darin Erstad (ankle). The
candidates from the farm appear to be Jerry Owens and Ryan Sweeney according to
Ozzie Guillen in the Chicago Sun-Times. Guillen said the organization was
leaning toward the speedy Owens because of his leadoff ability.

 

Sweeney
is the more prolific prospect but not one I’ve personally ever been 100 percent
sold on. Brian Anderson is the other Triple-A outfielder of note, but the
25-year-old failed to impress in 2006 and isn’t making much noise in the International
League at present with a .272/.350/.417 performance in 28 games; he went
3-for-5 with a double on Thursday.  All
three could play centerfield in a pinch although Sweeney has always profiled more
as a right fielder. The knock on him at present is a lack of power and his nine
extra base hits and three home runs (.400 slugging) suggests he’s not banging on
the door loud enough yet.

 

Owens
seems like the better fit for now; a legitimate leadoff type with speed. The
second round Expos’ pick in 2003 and former USC football player –- traded to the White
Sox for Alex Escobar –- has stolen 109 bases in three full pro seasons coming
into this year (23 this season), and had nine at-bats in the majors in 2006. As a late-bloomer
overage college pick he’s 25, but not a veteran minor leaguer. He’s a sold prospect
that should fit the team’s current need, capable of taking a walk and getting
on base, with plenty of speed for both centerfield and the base paths, but he
won’t give you much power, probably less than Erstad (short term) who has a .341 slugging
this year, a .371 the three years prior.

 

I like
Owens as a decent leadoff prospect and an exciting athlete. I’m looking forward
to him getting regular time, hoping he can change the manager’s mind on Erstad,
as Guillen has become overly fond of “veteran-ness” in recent days.

NathanHaynes got the call on Monday; the one he’s waited on 10 years. I profiled
Haynes at quononbaseball.com as the “Anti-Prospect,” leading the baseball world
with an at-the-time .400-plus batting average. The Angels optioned Tommy Murphy
to Triple-A Salt Lake and waived Phil Seibel to get Haynes on the 40-man roster.
The former first round draft pick got his first major league at-bat on Monday,
a pinch hit single in the eighth inning, in his 11^th season of
professional baseball; knee, back, shoulder and hand injuries cumulating into eight
surgeries as well as a stint in the Independent League now ancient history.

 
He was
hitting .391 with 99 total bases in 43 Triple-A Pacific Coast League games at
the time of his call. I don’t know exactly how the Angels intend on using him;
he’s a competent three-position outfielder with a little speed, showing more
pop in his bat this season than ever before. He’s similar to Reggie Willits in many
ways, probably a little less on the base paths, a little more in the way of gap
power. I assume the Angels are viewing him as a fourth outfielder type; capable
of filling in at every outfield spot to give the regulars a rest, maybe face
some tough right-handers in place of Willits who has slowed a fair bit at the
plate of late, possibly a result of a minor hamstring injury.

Kevin
Slowey is expected to replace Ramon Ortiz in the Twins rotation, although it’s
still unofficial at this time. I wrote the how and why here, and would now like
to focus on the projection at hand.

 
While I
like Slowey and write on him in glowing terms, he never made my Top-50 Prospect
list. The truth is I’m not surprised by his Triple-A dominance this season, but
don’t see him as an ace in the making. He’s owned the International League this year; a 6-2 record with a 1.54 ERA in nine starts proof of that. His control
is fantastic, his stuff is not. He features a low 90s fastball that he spots at
will and I understand his changeup is vastly improved this season, although the
times I saw him (on TV) he didn’t need it much. He pitches ahead in count; the splits
this season show 29 innings in this position against 11 behind, and his makeup and mound
presence is everything it’s been reported as. And he’s fluid, less likely to
break down. But he’ll never strikeout major league hitters at the same rate as potential
rotation mates Boof Bonser, Johan Santana, Matt Garza, or even Scott Baker. He’s
a groundball pitcher — although not in the severe category — that will rely on
control and defense ala Greg Maddux. Despite all the accolades he’s not the
greatest fit for the home park, and could struggle at times as the season wears on.

 Coming up to the majors as a top prospect on a
high? Advantage pitcher, until the hitters have a good read and an advanced
scouting report; the adjustments going forward from there are perpetual. I like
him for the long term, but slot him as a No.3 behind two of the stereotypical
power types in the organization, maybe a No.2 later in the career to break the high
velocity up.

A pleasantslow-paced weekend and I thought I’d use Monday to catch up on a few
transactions from the obscure and curious files.

 

Marlon
Byrd was called up by the Rangers and has gone 2-for-8 starting in two consecutive
games. I wrote on Byrd’s quick start here, noting I didn’t see him getting the
call with the Rangers outfield situation being convoluted; both major league and prospect
wise. But — I know some of my prospect brethren and colleagues are gonna hate
this — he deserved the call up over Jason Botts and deserves the playing time
over Nelson Cruz. Byrd outperformed Botts at Triple-A by a wide margin, and Cruz
has issues.

 

I admit
to not really being in the corner of Cruz or Victor Diaz. Cruz has a hole in his
swing that is currently being exploited by major league pitching; I think a
demotion is in order before this season is lost developmentally. Diaz has never
struck me as a guy who is anything but a role player.

 

I’ve
always liked Byrd’s skill set; at the very least he’s a decent bench player
with a little speed on the base paths, some pop in his bat, and the ability to
play three outfield positions. At age 29, he has much to prove and no time. I’m
not betting the farm on success in 2007 as the odds against are less than
favorable, but I will say I like his chances this season over Cruz or Diaz. At
bats for the half-season necessary to gauge seem improbable with the injured likely
to return, noting perhaps the Rangers have brought him up with the idea of trading
Kenny Lofton while he’s healthy.

 

Paul McAnulty
got the call on Saturday to replace Brian Giles, but it might be a short stint
with the injury to the regular right fielder not considered long term; more in
line with getting him some rest as the knee injury appears to have hurt his
production.

 

McAnulty,
a slow but steady riser since the Padres made him a 12^th round pick
out of Long Beach State U., hasn’t had much success at Triple-A this year, his
second full season at the level. The 5-10, 230-pounder is now 26 and doesn’t
really profile as a major league regular; too short to be considered ideal at
first base, too short and slow-footed for third base, and too slow to decisively
cover Petco dimensions in the outfield. He’s a left-handed pull hitter with
power, but struggles against left-handed pitching and generates much of his
production as a mistake hitter. He’s been slow but successful at every level,
and he might surprise and become a decent bat as a corner outfielder, it just
isn’t likely to be in 2007 without a few changes to the Padres current roster;
a fourth outfielder projection with a little upside for improving this prognostication.

 

Bobby Livingston was recalled on Monday to replace Kirk Saarloos; sent down due to ineffectiveness. I profiled him here, when he was first called to make a start for Eric Milton. He was — as projected – both hittable and
serviceable. I thought to make a second note here as I like this call up for
his type of pitcher. As a slow-growth soft-tossing southpaw, time spent in a
long relief capacity –most likely to come in low-key situations – can be
invaluable. I think it’s a good call by the organization; we’ll see if they can
live with it and whether or not it ultimately provides fruit later.

 

RyanBraun gets his long-awaited major league debut on Friday. It’s time with the Brewers
“veteran-ness” experiment a flop, the pair of Craig Counsel and Tony Graffanino
managing 41 hits in 198 at-bats, a paltry nine extra bases and 16 RBI in almost
two months.

Braun was
down for a bit early in the month with a couple of minor injuries but he’s hit
since his return, a 1.119 Triple-A Pacific Coast League OPS fair proof the offensive production at the hot corner is
about to improve. His currently raw defense should be a concern, but the giveaway-
takeaway comparison to the others should result positively.

 
I don’t blame
the Brewers for taking this approach early; they’re in a good spot now six games
up in the NL Central — the only team above .500 — and can afford the defensive
risk. I expect Braun to succeed at the plate where Alex Gordon is currently failing.
Both are top tier prospects, Braun’s power potential slightly better, Gordon
the better defender. The Brewers approach to let Braun have a little success at
Triple-A first will probably prove be the right development course of action.

 
Speaking
of the right course of action, I wrote on Yovani Gallardo prior to his last 10 K
start, believing he’s ripe after domination of the high minors. You’ll read
about it everywhere until it does happen. Don’t be surprised if it’s soon, and fantasy
leaguers should believe it’ll be both successful and permanent.

 

I
research the draft class every year, often begin the follow a year or two
prior, but historically my job has been to pontificate first in a lengthily article before
draft date, the true analysis beginning after they have a team. But every year
I get asked who I like, often from high-end dynasty and keeper fantasy players
who know I’m usually able to give them a different perspective for their
purposes, doing it for myself for more years than I care to disclose; for
the here and now, just two picks, hitter/ pitcher, and why.

 

Hitter

Matt Wieters,
C Georgia Tech – A Scott Boras client, he’s expected to fall in
the draft to mid-to-late first round range, only because of sign-ability. But
for fantasy, he’s a catcher who’ll likely remain one as he develops, with strong
offensive skills and high-end power; Joe Mauer-lite without the batting average
and less injury issues for now, but with the greater 30-plus home run potential.

 

Pitcher

Rick
Porcello, RHP Seton
Hall Prep – David Bryce is the consensus #1, the safer choice, but I like Porcello,
the high school pitcher for being more ace-like with upper-tier raw material. Dynasty
leaguers generally understand the additional
length of time and risk in a high school pitcher, but this is the guy I most
like for stardom. A college, higher-risk/ higher-upside type for me is North
Carolina State’s Andrew Brackman, who could ultimately join the many from this
decade who went from college to late-inning major leaguer in a short time frame;
definitely unrefined but he should bulldoze his way through the low minors quickly.

Abreu hasstatistically been down, up and down again this season at Triple-A Las Vegas,
and now finds himself up in the majors going 0-for-3 with an error playing third
base. He was hitting an overall .347 in the Pacific Coast League with two home runs and a
.503 slugging.

 
The
22-year-old has never garnered the same interest as many of the Dodgers’ sexier
prospects, but he profiles as a pretty decent player as an everyday second baseman
once Jeff Kent is no longer in the picture; solid gap/line drive power and quality defense. He won the high Single-A Florida State League batting title in
2005, less prolific in his Double-A performance last year, but enough development to warrant the
advance. He won’t be star or a home run king, but should hit enough at the
position in a year or two making him more than a defense-first type.

I’m
uncertain what the Dodgers plans are at present, noting Abreu is the third young
player and second call up from Triple-A to play the hot corner. Is the Andy LaRoche
era delayed based on a 30 at-bat sample?
If that’s the case it would seem he got about the same rope-length as Wilson Betemit. Abreu will need time in the the majors
before he’s ready to be an asset. Like many young Dominican-signed players he’s
not a patient hitter yet. He swings at first offering far too regularly, and
while he usually puts the ball in play, more discipline will be a requirement
he needs to address. A solid, not great, prospect that isn’t likely to help out
too much offensively without learning on the job; the notion the Dodgers will
trade for a big hot-corner bat still the talk of many rumor sites.