Homer Bailey to Make His Major League Debut This Weekend

Comingoff one of his worse starts of the Triple-A season – a six-inning outing in which
he gave up four runs on seven hits and three walks —   Bailey
is likely to be called up this weekend, according to MLB.com. And despite the
lukewarm showing on Saturday, it’s not a bad decision should it come to pass.

 
It’s
still unconfirmed at this time but the signs are in place, and manager Jerry Narron
has not ruled it out, suggesting a decision has been made, just not announced.
Earlier I wrote on this Blog that the time wasn’t right but things have changed,
most notably in his past three starts where he’s done everything right, putting
the International League hitter way at a more efficient rate. One could argue
that three starts isn’t enough innings, but the opportunity presents itself
now, as soon as Friday.

 
As to
what to expect should the report prove to be true? It’s always a hit-and-miss proposition
when pitchers first get called up. I’m one of the few that thought Bailey was
the best pitching prospect in baseball coming into this year. A previous
admission
on Tim Lincecum included, I still like Bailey more, feeling his long
term prognostication is higher for both control and injury issues. As mentioned, most first-starts for top pitching prospects are good; they tend to
degrade later, after the hitter and advanced scouts have a read on them, and I
don’t think Bailey is going to be called up for a one and out. He should have
enough success to make Eric Milton’s return from injury irrelevant.

 A realistic projection should be similar to Lincecum’s
season thus far; at times great, while other starts show they’re still in
development mode. The one concern short term is the ability to put the higher
class of hitter away. If he’s hitting the acceptable strikeout-per-nine rate of
around 7.00 in his third or fourth start, it should be a decent year. While the
Giants prospect has the advantage in deception and a nastier fastball, velocities
are basically neutral (both can get to the high 90s at times), and Bailey has
the superior overall repertoire and is less likely to have control problems. The
end numbers could look similar; the best saved for next decad
e.

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